冰与火之歌第一季

仲裁利好下，爱美客也难“翻身”_我的网站

四大名捕

A | 出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 张贝贝编辑 | 丁萍头图 | 视觉中国 1月30日晚间，爱美客发布公告，旗下子公司REGEN于1月29日收到深圳国际仲裁院下发的《仲裁庭关于〈撤销临时措施决定申请〉的决定》。这一决定撤销了2025年9月实施的临时措施，该措施此前禁止REGEN自行在中国大陆地区销售AestheFill产品，并需继续向原代理商江苏吴中控股孙公司达透医疗供货。自2025年9月10日爱美客公告上述临时措施以来，股价累计跌幅已近30%。那么，此次仲裁限制解除，爱美客会出现上涨行情吗？在回答这个问题之前，我们先来了解下此次爱美客的“童颜针AestheFill产品”的商业争夺战，是否结束？这决定了上述利好是短期还是长期驱动。并非最终裁决这场仲裁纠纷源于爱美客2025年3月以1.9亿美元收购韩国REGEN公司85%股权后，REGEN于同年7月单方面解除与达透医疗关于童颜针AestheFill产品的独家经销协议，并不再接收达透医疗发送的任何订单。 Pyongyang's assumptions with regard to Washington's potential role in the COVID-19 pandemic apparently stem from a bombshell report by professors Jeffrey D Sachs and Neil L Harrison, published in May 2022 by peer-reviewed multidisciplinary scientific journal, The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS).,"Prof Jeffrey Sachs of Columbia University had spent two years as chairman of the Lancet Commission on COVID and recently published a major paper in the prestigious PNAS journal arguing that the virus was very likely artificial, also calling for an independent inquiry into its possible American origins, but virtually all western media outlets ignored his dramatic reversal," says Ron Unz, an American technology entrepreneur, political activist, writer and the publisher of the Unz Review.,On 27 May, Sachs and Harrison released an op-ed for Project Syndicate, arguing that US authorities suppressed inquiries into the role US scientific research institutions may have played in creating the conditions of the COVID pandemic. "Yet if the coronavirus did indeed come from a lab, US culpability is almost certain," the professors insisted, calling for independent probes "not only into the outbreak in Wuhan, China, but also into the relevant US scientific research, international outreach, and technology licensing in the lead-up to the pandemic.",According to Sachs and Harrison, "the full story of the outbreak could involve America’s role in researching coronaviruses and in sharing its biotechnology with others around the world." The professors pointed out that "US scientists who work with SARS-like coronaviruses regularly create and test dangerous novel variants" to develop drugs and vaccines against them. These experiments, also known as "gain-of-function" research, have been conducted for decades prompting concerns that one day they could lead to an accidental outbreak or end up in the wrong hands, the scholars highlighted.,"In June, [Sachs] went even further in his public statements at a Spanish think-tank, describing the COVID virus as probably having an American origin," notes Unz. "In my opinion, Prof Sachs is merely stating what many senior figures in the West quietly believe or suspect but have been unwilling to mention publicly.",Situation in UkraineUS Has Helped Support 46 Biological Labs in Ukraine Over Last Two Decades, Pentagon Says9 June, 17:19 GMT,An Accidental Leak or a Warfare Tool?,America's experiments with viruses and dangerous pathogens have triggered concerns in Russia and China over the past few years. On 13 May 2020, Russia's Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov drew attention to a "dense network" of US biolabs located "along the perimeter of the Russian Federation and near Chinese borders".,Earlier this year, Beijing urged Washington to disclose the information about the activities of at least 360 biolabs in the world, presumably run by the US.,Since 2001, Russia, China, and many other countries have advocated the creation of a verification mechanism within the framework of the Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on their Destruction to ensure biosafety across the world. Nonetheless, the US was "about the only country" which has categorically opposed this proposal for roughly 20 years, Lavrov revealed in 2020.,"Over the past 70 years, America has invested an estimated $100Bln in developing the world's largest and longest-standing biowarfare program," says Unz.,Situation in UkraineWhat's Behind Washington's Denial of Biowarfare Weapons Programme in Ukraine?12 March, 15:50 GMT,The American publisher suggested that the US could be responsible for the COVID outbreak long before Sachs and Harrison did. Furthermore, Unz does not rule out that the pathogen was used as a deliberate biowarfare tool against China and, possibly, Iran by "elements of [the US] national security establishment, though without the direct knowledge or authorization of President Donald Trump.",There are a lot of unknowns about the mysterious pandemic which is believed to have come from the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan, China. For instance, neither a COVID-19 "patient zero" nor a "guilty bat" have been found, which means that SARS-CoV-2 may actually have been circulating among humans some time before the late 2019 Wuhan outbreak, according to CBS News.,In April 2020, ABC News broke the story that a special medical intelligence unit within the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) in the second week of November 2019 produced a classified report warning about an "out-of-control disease epidemic" in the Wuhan area of China. It urged the US to protect its forces in Asia. Although a Pentagon spokesman officially denied the existence of that November report, Israel's broadcaster Channel 12 said the US had also shared the document in question with NATO and Israeli Defense Force (IDF).,It appears suspicious, according to Unz, that the DIA rushed to dub the mysterious disease an "epidemic" at a time when just a couple of dozen individuals were infected in Wuhan.,"It therefore appears that elements of the Defense Intelligence Agency were aware of the deadly viral outbreak in Wuhan more than a month before any officials in the Chinese government itself," Unz points out. "Furthermore, the New York Times and CNN have also promoted a major new research study just published in Science that found the first Wuhan infection probably occurred on 18 November 2019. This was after the secret DIA report had already been produced, but the American media has completely ignored the implications of this striking discrepancy.",Yet another strange coincidence was Donald Trump's appointment of Robert Kadlec as the top official for dealing with biological threats in 2017, the American writer says. Since the Nineties, Kadlec had been one of America’s leading biowarfare advocates.,"From January to August 2019, Kadlec’s department ran the 'Crimson Contagion' simulation exercise, involving the hypothetical outbreak of a dangerous respiratory viral disease in China, which eventually spreads to the United States, with the participants focusing on the necessary measures to control it in this country," Unz says, adding that before that China had suffered two inexplicable viral epidemics which hit its poultry and pork industry in 2018 and 2019, respectively.,Situation in UkraineUkraine Labs: Bioweapons Can be Used as Tool in US Low-Level War Against Russia, ex-DoD Analyst Says15 April, 12:51 GMT,History of Pentagon's Bio-warfare,Although the Pentagon's alleged responsibility for the COVID outbreak has yet to be examined and backed by solid evidence, one must admit that Washington is no novice where biological warfare is concerened.,The US was accused of using germ weapons against Korea during the Korean War (1950-1953) and China based on the testimony of at least 38 US military pilots.,In August 2021, Xinhua quoted witnesses and historians describing how the Pentagon used germ bombs in civilian areas in China and Korea to spread dozens of species of poisonous insects and germs.,And Havana leveled accusations against the Pentagon over the dengue epidemic in Cuba that contaminated 345,000 people in 1981 and an artificial outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) that led to the slaughter of 500,000 animals and inflicted considerable economic damage on the island nation in 1971. The US Department of Defense denied the allegations.,"Over the years highly regarded and fully mainstream American journalists and academics have published books and articles documenting America's extensive use of biowarfare during the Korean War and later as anti-food supply attacks against Cuba, East Germany, and other countries," notes Unz.,Recently, Russia's Ministry of Defense has revisited cases pertaining to the US history of biological warfare, while examining a trove of highly sensitive documents shedding light on the Pentagon's experiments with highly contagious pathogens in Ukraine. According to the MoD, the Pentagon's Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) division ran a network of biological labs in Ukraine with the aim of inflicting damage on Russia's people and economy.,"I'm certainly aware of the Russian Ministry of Defense public claims regarding the Pentagon's involvement in Ukrainian biolabs, and the preparation of possible biowarfare attacks against Russia," says Unz. "I don't have any special knowledge of this issue, but the apparent public admission by [Undersecretary of State] Victoria Nuland at a US Senate hearing convinced me that there was a high likelihood that these Russian accusations were correct.",Unz argues that "American military plans for biowarfare attacks against Russia dramatically increase the likelihood that similar measures had been prepared against China and Iran, and perhaps actually carried out by rogue elements of the Trump Administration." Although US secretive biological programs and the Pentagon's overseas biowarfare labs have been triggering further suspicions, the topic still remains largely neglected and suppressed by western mainstream media.。 Regen给出的解约理由是：（1）达透医疗将独家经销业务，实际转让给其控股股东江苏吴中旗下的吴中美学，违反协议约定；（2）吴中美学唯一股东（即江苏吴中）及其高管，遭行政处罚，多项违规、调查及处罚事项已披露，严重影响AestheFill产品声誉。面对突如其来的解约，达透医疗随即提起仲裁，要求经销协议继续履行，并成功获得上述提到的临时措施保护。

B | 据协议约定，达透公司对“AestheFill”在中国大陆的独家经销权，应延续至2032年8月28日。

C | 期间，双方一直未能和解。而此次仲裁限制解除，意味着REGEN在中国大陆地区对于AestheFill产品的销售权不受影响。但要注意的是，爱美客子公司REGEN收到的这份《决定》只是仲裁庭组庭前的一项程序性事项，不是最终裁决结果。所以，REGEN单方面解除江苏吴中控股孙公司达透医疗的独家代理权是否合法终止，仍需等待仲裁庭的最终裁决。也就是说，代理权之争并未结束，只是短期出现了对爱美客有利的转折。所以，仅凭此利好，爱美客即使在资本市场上出现上涨行情，也难持续。更关键的，还是要依赖于基本面支撑。

D | 接下来我们看下爱美客的业务情况。

E | 处于业绩“阵痛期” 曾经被誉为“医美茅”的爱美客，已连续四个季度出现营收、利润双下滑的情况。财报显示，在2024年第4季度出现单季度营收、利润下滑后，2025年前三个季度爱美客也没能改变业绩下降趋势，季度业绩双降持续。具体为： 2025年一、二、三季度，公司营收分别为6.63亿元、6.36亿元、5.66亿元，同比下降17.90%、25.11%、21.27%；扣非净利润分别为4.02亿元、3.2亿元、2.55亿元，同比下降24.02%、42.83%、42.37%。可看到，爱美客正面临较大的增长压力。分析原因，有两点：一是宏观经济环境影响居民消费信心，部分求美者可能因此削减或推迟支出；二是，近年来医美厂商大量涌入，行业竞争加剧，利润空间受到挤压。上述背景下，即使爱美客是医美龙头，也未能独善其身。 2025年上半年，爱美客旗下主要业绩来源溶液类注射产品、凝胶类注射产品收入分别为7.44亿元、4.93亿，较2024年同期的9.76亿元、6.49亿元，下降明显。且上述两款产品的收入贡献已经从2024年上半年、2024全年的98.07%、97.82%下滑至2025年上半年的95.22%。再考虑到，其溶液类核心产品用于颈纹修复的嗨体，随着2024年7月华熙生物用于颈部修复的“润致·格格”针上市，不再独占市场；以及其凝胶类核心产品“濡白天使”的竞品较多，与该产品定位相同可刺激自身胶原的”再生类“产品，包括圣博玛的艾维岚、华东医药的少女针等国内已获批多款，深陷竞争压力。由上可看到，爱美客急需新引擎提振业绩。这也是2025年3月，爱美客宣布1.9亿美元（约合人民币13.86亿元）收购韩国REGEN Biotech, Inc.85%股权受到市场关注较多的重要原因。

F | 因为REGEN旗下的童颜针AestheFill产品有望与濡白天使形成协同，补充再生品类产品矩阵，并为公司带来业绩增量；且AestheFill产品已经在韩国、中国台湾等多个国家进行销售，且据头豹研究院发布的《2023年中国医美再生注射剂行业概览》，AestheFill在中国台湾地区“医美再生注射剂”市场以接近30%的份额排名第一看，竞争实力还是可以的。

G | 但要注意的是，即使童颜针AestheFill产品没有涉及代理权之争，其3亿元左右的年销售额对于爱美客的业绩提振或也有限。（2024年江苏吴中的医美生科收入3.29亿，2023年仅有762万，侧面推出2024年新增代理的REGEN旗下童颜针AestheFill销售收入约3亿元）为何这样说？由上述，2025年上半年，爱美客核心产品溶液类注射产品、凝胶类注射产品合计收入12.37亿元，较2024年同期下降3.88亿元；以此为基础，预计2025全年上述产品收入下降金额预计6亿元左右。

H | 所以，童颜针AestheFill产品的年销售额可能难补足缺口。

I | 即使再加上1月份公司经销的肉毒素获批，爱美客短期或也难以扭转业绩双降压力。因为除了爱美客新获批的引进产品，国内已获批的肉毒素还有兰州生物的衡力（1993年获批）、艾尔建的保妥适（2009年获批）、益普生的吉适（2020年获批）、秀杰的乐提葆（2020/2021获批，两种不同规格）、麦施美学的思奥美（2024年获批）、复星医药的达希斐（2024年获批）6款。且国内肉毒素市场已形成兰州生物的“衡力”和艾尔建的“保妥适”占据主导，其他品牌争夺剩余份额的局面。所以，爱美客的产品上市后，抢夺市场份额的难度较大。从上述维度看，2026年爱美客的业绩压力，大概率仍比较大。小结综上，爱美客旗下子公司REGEN自行在中国大陆地区销售AestheFill产品的限制解除，确实是短期利好，但因为不是最终裁决，未来还是具有不确定性；再加上，公司目前仍处于业绩“阵痛”期，短期内或难以扭转，所以资本市场即使有上涨行情，或也难持续，投资还需谨慎。免责声明：本文内容仅供参照，文内信息或所表达的意见不构成任何投资建议，请读者谨慎作出投资决策。